Received by the Editorial Office: August 20, 2026
Accepted for publication: September 25, 2026
Published online: September 30, 2026
UDC: 616.24-002.5-036.88(574)
DOI: 10.26212/2227-1937.2026.14.52.014
Article type: Original article
EPIDEMIOLOGICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF TUBERCULOSIS MORTALITY IN THE REGIONS OF THE REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN, 2020–2024
Aitambayeva N.¹, Aringazina A.², Nazarova L.¹, Abdirova T.¹, Tulebayeva I.¹, Popova T.¹, Sarsenbayeva M.¹, Ainakulov D.¹, Usserbayeva G.¹, Kassymova A.⁴, Issenova B.¹, Narymbayeva N.¹, Sydykova B.¹, Saktapov A.¹˒³, Svetlanova Sh.¹
¹Kazakh Medical University “Higher School of Public Health”, Almaty, Kazakhstan
²Almaty Management University, Almaty, Kazakhstan
³Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Almaty, Kazakhstan
4Municipal State Enterprise on the Right of Economic Management “Higher Medical College” of the Public Health Department of Almaty City, Almaty, Kazakhstan
Introduction: Tuberculosis remains an important public health problem despite substantial progress in diagnosis and treatment. National trends may conceal considerable regional differences in mortality, making territorial analysis important for tuberculosis control planning.
Objective: To assess trends in tuberculosis mortality and describe regional differences in the Republic of Kazakhstan during 2020–2024.
Materials and Methods: A retrospective descriptive and analytical epidemiological study was conducted using official aggregated statistics on tuberculosis mortality in Kazakhstan and its administrative regions for 2020–2024. Mortality rates per 100,000 population were analyzed using descriptive statistics, comparison of absolute changes, regional ranking, linear trend analysis, and two-factor analysis of variance. For ANOVA, only administrative units with complete five-year series were included; newly established regions with missing 2020–2021 values were excluded from this analysis. Statistical significance was set at p<0.05.
Results: National tuberculosis mortality decreased from 1.9 per 100,000 population in 2020 to 1.0 per 100,000 in 2024, corresponding to a 47.4% reduction. Significant differences were observed between regions (F(16,64)=30.99; p<0.001) and years of observation (F(4,64)=30.57; p<0.001). The highest average mortality rates were recorded in North Kazakhstan (2.76 per 100,000), Karaganda (2.68 per 100,000), and East Kazakhstan (2.46 per 100,000). By 2024, the lowest rates were recorded in Turkestan region (0.2 per 100,000), Aktobe region (0.6 per 100,000), and Almaty region (0.6 per 100,000). Most regions demonstrated a decline during the study period, although the magnitude and stability of this decline varied.
Discussion: The national decline in tuberculosis mortality was accompanied by persistent interregional heterogeneity. The consistently higher rates observed in several northern and eastern regions indicate that national averages alone do not fully reflect territorial differences in the tuberculosis burden. Interpretation of these differences requires consideration of demographic, healthcare, and socioeconomic characteristics that were not directly evaluated in the present study.
Conclusion: Tuberculosis mortality in Kazakhstan declined substantially between 2020 and 2024, but significant regional differences persisted. Regional surveillance and targeted tuberculosis control measures should therefore complement national strategies, particularly in territories with consistently higher mortality rates.
Keywords: tuberculosis; mortality; regional differences; epidemiology; tuberculosis control; Kazakhstan.
