Received: August 18, 2026
Accepted for publication: September 23, 2026
Published online: September 30, 2026
UDC: 616-002.5-036.22(574)
DOI: 10.26212/2227-1937.2026.46.76.015
TRENDS AND REGIONAL DIFFERENCES IN TUBERCULOSIS INCIDENCE IN KAZAKHSTAN, 2020-2024
Aitambayeva N.¹, Aringazina A.², Nazarova L.¹, Abdirova T.¹, Usserbayeva G.¹, Popova T.¹, Sarsenbayeva M.¹, Berdiyarova G.¹, Kassymova A.⁴, Issenova B.¹, Narymbayeva N.¹, Sydykova B.¹, Saktapov A.¹˒³, Svetlanova Sh.¹, Amandikova N.⁵
¹Kazakh Medical University “Higher School of Public Health”, Almaty, Kazakhstan
²Almaty Management University, Almaty, Kazakhstan
³Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Almaty, Kazakhstan
4Municipal State Enterprise on the Right of Economic Management “Higher Medical College” of the Public Health Department of Almaty City, Almaty, Kazakhstan
5 Kazakh Institute of Oncology and Radiology, Almaty, Kazakhstan
Introduction. Tuberculosis incidence in Kazakhstan has generally declined, but rates still differ considerably between regions. The 2020–2024 period is useful for examining these differences because it covers the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent restoration of routine healthcare services.
Objective. To assess trends and regional differences in tuberculosis incidence in the Republic of Kazakhstan during 2020–2024. Materials and Methods. A retrospective descriptive and analytical epidemiological study was conducted using official data from the National Tuberculosis Patient Registry for 2020–2024. Incidence rates per 100,000 population were analyzed using descriptive statistics, ranking, assessment of interannual variability, and two-way analysis of variance (ANOVA). Statistical significance was set at p<0.05.
Results. Tuberculosis incidence in Kazakhstan decreased from 35.7 per 100,000 population in 2020 to 33.3 per 100,000 in 2024, a reduction of 6.7%. Significant differences were observed between regions (F(20,74)=21.57; p<0.001) and years (F(4,74)=5.17; p=0.001). Among regions with complete five-year data, the highest mean rates were recorded in Atyrau and Kyzylorda regions. Among regions established in 2022, Ulytau also showed a high incidence level. The lowest rates were observed in Almaty city and Turkestan region. In East Kazakhstan, the 2024 incidence rate was 10.8% higher than in 2020.
Discussion. The national decline was modest and occurred alongside marked regional differences. Their causes cannot be determined from this analysis because socioeconomic, demographic, and clinical factors were not included.
Conclusion. Tuberculosis incidence in Kazakhstan decreased by 6.7% between 2020 and 2024, while regional differences persisted. The highest rates were observed in Atyrau and Kyzylorda regions; in East Kazakhstan, the 2024 rate remained above the 2020 level.
Keywords: tuberculosis; incidence; epidemiology; regional differences; Kazakhstan.
