Received: 28.10.2025
Accepted: 05.12.2025
Published online: 31.12.2025
UDC: 615.1:614.2:616.2
DOI: 10.26212/2227-1937.2025.68.21.003
DEVELOPMENT OF A MODEL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF REGIONAL PHARMACEUTICAL
PRODUCTION FOR DRUG SUPPLY FOR RESPIRATORY DISEASES
Yegizbaeva S.A. ¹, Serikbayeva E.A. ¹, Datkhayev U.M. ¹,
Umurzakhova G.Z.², Zhakipbekov K.S. ¹
¹Asfendiyarov Kazakh National Medical University, Almaty, Republic of Kazakhstan
²South Kazakhstan Medical Academy, Shymkent city, Republic of Kazakhstan
Introduction. Respiratory diseases (acute respiratory infections, influenza, pneumonia, COPD,
bronchial asthma, tuberculosis, etc.) remain among the leading causes of morbidity and mortality
worldwide and in Kazakhstan. Seasonal epidemic peaks, pandemic waves (COVID-19), growing
antibiotic resistance, and high demand for inhalation and parenteral dosage forms place significant
pressure on pharmaceutical supply chains. Under these conditions, the development of regional
pharmaceutical production becomes a key tool for ensuring medicinal resilience – the capacity of the health system to guarantee continuous availability, quality, and affordability of medicines for
respiratory diseases under internal and external shocks.
Objective. To develop a modern, scientifically grounded conceptual model for the development
of regional pharmaceutical production aimed at ensuring medicinal resilience for respiratory diseases in an unstable external economic and epidemiological environment.
Materials and Methods. The study is based on a theoretical and analytical approach, including
systematization and analysis of scientific publications, regulatory documents, and national and
supranational programs related to pharmaceutical sector development and medicine supply for
respiratory diseases. The methodological framework includes systems thinking, the theory of dynamic capabilities, the concept of complex adaptive systems, SWOT and PESTEL analysis, Porter’s Five Forces model, strategic foresight, and scenario planning. For quantitative analysis, the paper proposes the use of system dynamics, simulation modeling (including Monte Carlo), demand forecasting techniques (such as ARIMA), and multicriteria decision analysis (AHP, TOPSIS) to select strategic options for developing production of medicines for respiratory diseases. The model was developed on a theoretical basis without empirical verification.
Results. A conceptual model for assessing the resilience of regional pharmaceutical production
in Kazakhstan, specifically tailored to the segment of medicines for respiratory diseases, is proposed. The model includes sequential stages: (1) diagnostic assessment of the current state of the industry (with a focus on the portfolio and localization of respiratory medicines); (2) construction of a system of medicinal resilience indicators (economic, technological, social, and regulatory); (3) scenario modeling of production and supply chains, taking into account seasonality, epidemic outbreaks, and global disruptions; (4) quantitative modeling and stress testing of key supply chain components; (5) multicriteria ranking of strategic options (selection of priority medicine groups, investment projects, 30 and forms of production cooperation); (6) validation and adaptation of the model with the participation of key stakeholders (regulators, manufacturers, clinicians, logistics operators).
Discussion. The model integrates elements of cluster, industrial-state, licensing-franchising and
CDMO models, as well as the open innovation paradigm, adapting them to the specific task of ensuring medicinal resilience in respiratory diseases. It is shown that a combination of localization of critical medicines (antibiotics for pneumonia, antivirals, bronchodilators, inhaled corticosteroids, oxygen and infusion support) with the development of regional clusters, technology transfer mechanisms and digital platforms for demand monitoring can increase system adaptability to epidemiological shocks.
Conclusions. The proposed conceptual model can serve as a theoretical basis for the formation
of national and regional policies in the field of pharmaceutical production development aimed at
ensuring medicinal resilience for respiratory diseases. The main limitations of the study are the lack of empirical testing and limited availability of up-to-date regional statistics, which calls for further pilot studies at the level of specific pharmaceutical enterprises and regions.
Keywords: regional pharmaceutical production, medicinal resilience, respiratory diseases,
strategic planning, system dynamics, licensing-franchising model, CDMO, open innovation.
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