{"id":2613,"date":"2026-06-30T15:55:53","date_gmt":"2026-06-30T10:55:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/journal.nncf.kz\/?p=2613"},"modified":"2026-07-03T23:34:18","modified_gmt":"2026-07-03T18:34:18","slug":"%d1%84%d0%b0%d0%ba%d1%82%d0%be%d1%80%d1%8b-%d1%80%d0%b8%d1%81%d0%ba%d0%b0-%d0%b8-%d0%bf%d1%80%d0%b5%d0%b4%d0%b8%d0%ba%d1%82%d0%be%d1%80%d1%8b-%d0%bd%d0%b5%d0%b1%d0%bb%d0%b0%d0%b3%d0%be%d0%bf%d1%80","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/journal.nncf.kz\/en\/%d1%84%d0%b0%d0%ba%d1%82%d0%be%d1%80%d1%8b-%d1%80%d0%b8%d1%81%d0%ba%d0%b0-%d0%b8-%d0%bf%d1%80%d0%b5%d0%b4%d0%b8%d0%ba%d1%82%d0%be%d1%80%d1%8b-%d0%bd%d0%b5%d0%b1%d0%bb%d0%b0%d0%b3%d0%be%d0%bf%d1%80\/","title":{"rendered":"RISK FACTORS AND PREDICTORS OF ADVERSE COURSE OF INTERSTITIAL LUNG DISEASES: A LITERATURE REVIEW"},"content":{"rendered":"

Received by the Editorial Office: 22.04.2026<\/em><\/p>\n

Accepted for publication: 18.05.<\/em>2026<\/em><\/p>\n

Published online 30.06.2026<\/em><\/p>\n

UDC: 616.24-002.17-036.1-037<\/p>\n

DOI: 10.26212\/2227-1937.2026.60.22.009<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

RISK FACTORS AND PREDICTORS OF ADVERSE COURSE OF INTERSTITIAL LUNG DISEASES: A LITERATURE REVIEW<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Zhadil A.D. \u00b9,<\/sup>\u00b2, Kassenova S.L. \u00b9, Vinnikov D.V. \u00b3, Avdeev S.N. <\/strong>\u2074<\/strong>, <\/strong><\/p>\n

Tuleutayev R.M. \u00b9, Kaibullaeva D.A. \u00b9, Kalykova M.B. \u00b9<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00b9 Research Institute of Cardiology and Internal Diseases JSC, Almaty, Kazakhstan<\/em><\/p>\n

\u00b2 Asfendiyarov Kazakh National Medical University, Almaty, Kazakhstan<\/em><\/p>\n

\u00b3 Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Almaty, Kazakhstan<\/em><\/p>\n

\u2074<\/em> I.M. Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University (Sechenov University), Moscow, Russian Federation<\/em><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Introduction. <\/strong>Interstitial lung diseases (ILDs) are a heterogeneous group of disorders characterized by inflammation and\/or fibrosis of the lung parenchyma and frequently leading to progressive respiratory failure. A substantial proportion of patients develop a progressive fibrosing phenotype associated with an unfavorable prognosis.<\/p>\n

Objective. <\/strong>To analyze current evidence on risk factors for progression and predictors of adverse outcomes in interstitial lung diseases.<\/p>\n

Materials and methods. <\/strong>This study was conducted as a narrative literature review. The literature search was performed in PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, and Google Scholar, predominantly covering 2015-2025, using Russian- and English-language keywords related to interstitial lung diseases, progressive pulmonary fibrosis, risk factors, and functional, radiological, and laboratory predictors. A total of 50 sources were included, comprising systematic reviews, meta-analyses, cohort studies, registry data, clinical guidelines, and expert consensus statements.<\/p>\n

Results. <\/strong>The most clinically significant and reproducible predictors of ILD progression are a decline in forced vital capacity (FVC), a decrease in diffusing capacity of the lungs for carbon monoxide (DLCO), progression of fibrotic changes on high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT), and the presence of traction bronchiectasis, honeycombing, and a usual interstitial pneumonia pattern. Additional prognostic value is associated with clinical deterioration, increasing dyspnea, exercise-induced desaturation, reduced six-minute walk distance, older age, smoking, and occupational, domestic, and environmental inhalational exposures. Laboratory and molecular markers may complement risk assessment; however, most of them are not yet sufficiently standardized for independent use in routine clinical practice.<\/p>\n

Discussion. <\/strong>The adverse course of ILDs is determined not by a single isolated factor but by the combined influence of functional, radiological, clinical, exposure-related, and laboratory parameters. In idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, decline in lung function and the presence of a usual interstitial pneumonia pattern more often reflect irreversible fibrosis and are associated with a poorer prognosis. In connective tissue disease-associated ILDs, the same parameters may have a more variable interpretation because the disease course depends on the activity of systemic inflammation and response to therapy.<\/p>\n

Conclusion. <\/strong>ILD progression requires early risk stratification based on a multifactorial approach. Routine follow-up should include dynamic assessment of FVC, DLCO, clinical symptoms, exercise tolerance, exercise-induced desaturation, and HRCT signs of fibrosis. Detailed assessment of occupational, domestic, and environmental exposure history is also important. Development and validation of prognostic models integrating functional, radiological, clinical, exposure-related, and laboratory parameters represent a promising direction for individualized risk assessment in ILDs.<\/p>\n

Keywords: <\/strong>interstitial lung diseases; progressive pulmonary fibrosis; risk factors; forced vital capacity; high-resolution computed tomography.<\/p>\n

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