{"id":2257,"date":"2025-12-30T17:28:27","date_gmt":"2025-12-30T17:28:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/journal.nncf.kz\/?p=2257"},"modified":"2026-03-11T17:51:04","modified_gmt":"2026-03-11T17:51:04","slug":"%d1%80%d0%b0%d0%b7%d1%80%d0%b0%d0%b1%d0%be%d1%82%d0%ba%d0%b0-%d0%bc%d0%be%d0%b4%d0%b5%d0%bb%d0%b8-%d1%80%d0%b0%d0%b7%d0%b2%d0%b8%d1%82%d0%b8%d1%8f-%d1%80%d0%b5%d0%b3%d0%b8%d0%be%d0%bd%d0%b0%d0%bb","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/journal.nncf.kz\/en\/%d1%80%d0%b0%d0%b7%d1%80%d0%b0%d0%b1%d0%be%d1%82%d0%ba%d0%b0-%d0%bc%d0%be%d0%b4%d0%b5%d0%bb%d0%b8-%d1%80%d0%b0%d0%b7%d0%b2%d0%b8%d1%82%d0%b8%d1%8f-%d1%80%d0%b5%d0%b3%d0%b8%d0%be%d0%bd%d0%b0%d0%bb\/","title":{"rendered":"DEVELOPMENT OF A MODEL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF REGIONAL PHARMACEUTICAL PRODUCTION FOR DRUG SUPPLY FOR RESPIRATORY DISEASES"},"content":{"rendered":"

Received: 28.10.2025
\nAccepted: 05.12.2025
\nPublished online: 31.12.2025
\nUDC: 615.1:614.2:616.2
\nDOI: 10.26212\/2227-1937.2025.68.21.003<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

DEVELOPMENT OF A MODEL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF REGIONAL PHARMACEUTICAL<\/strong>
\nPRODUCTION FOR DRUG SUPPLY FOR RESPIRATORY DISEASES<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Yegizbaeva S.A. \u00b9, Serikbayeva E.A. \u00b9, Datkhayev U.M. \u00b9,
\nUmurzakhova G.Z.\u00b2, Zhakipbekov K.S. \u00b9<\/p>\n

\u00b9Asfendiyarov Kazakh National Medical University, Almaty, Republic of Kazakhstan<\/p>\n

\u00b2South Kazakhstan Medical Academy, Shymkent city, Republic of Kazakhstan<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Introduction<\/strong>. Respiratory diseases (acute respiratory infections, influenza, pneumonia, COPD,
\nbronchial asthma, tuberculosis, etc.) remain among the leading causes of morbidity and mortality
\nworldwide and in Kazakhstan. Seasonal epidemic peaks, pandemic waves (COVID-19), growing
\nantibiotic resistance, and high demand for inhalation and parenteral dosage forms place significant
\npressure on pharmaceutical supply chains. Under these conditions, the development of regional
\npharmaceutical production becomes a key tool for ensuring medicinal resilience – the capacity of the health system to guarantee continuous availability, quality, and affordability of medicines for
\nrespiratory diseases under internal and external shocks.<\/p>\n

Objective<\/strong>. To develop a modern, scientifically grounded conceptual model for the development
\nof regional pharmaceutical production aimed at ensuring medicinal resilience for respiratory diseases in an unstable external economic and epidemiological environment.<\/p>\n

Materials and Methods<\/strong>. The study is based on a theoretical and analytical approach, including
\nsystematization and analysis of scientific publications, regulatory documents, and national and
\nsupranational programs related to pharmaceutical sector development and medicine supply for
\nrespiratory diseases. The methodological framework includes systems thinking, the theory of dynamic capabilities, the concept of complex adaptive systems, SWOT and PESTEL analysis, Porter\u2019s Five Forces model, strategic foresight, and scenario planning. For quantitative analysis, the paper proposes the use of system dynamics, simulation modeling (including Monte Carlo), demand forecasting techniques (such as ARIMA), and multicriteria decision analysis (AHP, TOPSIS) to select strategic options for developing production of medicines for respiratory diseases. The model was developed on a theoretical basis without empirical verification.<\/p>\n

Results<\/strong>. A conceptual model for assessing the resilience of regional pharmaceutical production
\nin Kazakhstan, specifically tailored to the segment of medicines for respiratory diseases, is proposed. The model includes sequential stages: (1) diagnostic assessment of the current state of the industry (with a focus on the portfolio and localization of respiratory medicines); (2) construction of a system of medicinal resilience indicators (economic, technological, social, and regulatory); (3) scenario modeling of production and supply chains, taking into account seasonality, epidemic outbreaks, and global disruptions; (4) quantitative modeling and stress testing of key supply chain components; (5) multicriteria ranking of strategic options (selection of priority medicine groups, investment projects, 30 and forms of production cooperation); (6) validation and adaptation of the model with the participation of key stakeholders (regulators, manufacturers, clinicians, logistics operators).<\/p>\n

Discussion<\/strong>. The model integrates elements of cluster, industrial-state, licensing-franchising and
\nCDMO models, as well as the open innovation paradigm, adapting them to the specific task of ensuring medicinal resilience in respiratory diseases. It is shown that a combination of localization of critical medicines (antibiotics for pneumonia, antivirals, bronchodilators, inhaled corticosteroids, oxygen and infusion support) with the development of regional clusters, technology transfer mechanisms and digital platforms for demand monitoring can increase system adaptability to epidemiological shocks.<\/p>\n

Conclusions<\/strong>. The proposed conceptual model can serve as a theoretical basis for the formation
\nof national and regional policies in the field of pharmaceutical production development aimed at
\nensuring medicinal resilience for respiratory diseases. The main limitations of the study are the lack of empirical testing and limited availability of up-to-date regional statistics, which calls for further pilot studies at the level of specific pharmaceutical enterprises and regions.<\/p>\n

Keywords<\/strong>: regional pharmaceutical production, medicinal resilience, respiratory diseases,
\nstrategic planning, system dynamics, licensing-franchising model, CDMO, open innovation.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

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